Parish Notices Sunday 27th October 2019

The Rector writes  ‘As most of you know, our parish is an ‘Eco Congregation’ since 2014 and we have made many changes in how we do things in order to live more lightly on our planet; things like not using any pesticide or herbicides in our green areas, separating waste and recycling, reusing.. using both our existing Delph and 100% compostable cups and plates for big occasions and so on. Now it is time for us to reassess what else we can do as a parish or as individuals.

Val Andrew has very kindly undertaken to lead the  Eco Congregation Group in the Parish. If any of you are interested in joining do please contact her on 087 1270457. You can find more details about Eco Congregation on their website  ecocongregationireland.com  or check out some of the ECO TIPS on our website  carrigalineunion.org

Parish Office will be closed on Friday 1st November.

Monkstown Home Group are meeting in the Fleury’s home on                 Wednesday 30th October at 8pm. All welcome. 087 2649523.

Christian Aid  2020 Calendars now available from John Sweeney in Monkstown. 10 euro each. A great way to support this worthy organisation!

Carrigaline Union & Douglas Union with Frankfield Drama  are having another wonderful Theatre Supper event this November (28th, 29th & 30th November).  Again held in the Canon Packham Hall in St Luke’s Douglas, this year’s plays are ‘A Secret Life’ by Harry Parsons and ‘The Music Lovers’ by George Feydeau . Tickets will be available shortly from Madeleine Geary or Christine in the office but for now make sure to put one of the dates in your diary ! 

The Annual Gift Day giving will take place this year as part of the normal morning Services on Sunday 24th November.

Anam Cara Cork the organisation that supports bereaved parents, is holding a Parent Evening on 6th November at 7:20pm in The Clayton Hotel, Cork City. This is a free event and open to all bereaved parents. For more information, see anamcara.ie or call their Information Line on 085 2888 888.

John Henry Newman (1801-1890) has been in the news lately. He composed some of the most popular hymns in English hymnody including ‘Lead, kindly Light’. Musicians appreciate the setting by Elgar of The Dream of Gerontius written by Newman, from which the popular hymn ‘Praise to the Holiest’ is taken. It is being performed at the National Concert Hall on November 8th next.   If you enjoy singing or playing a musical instrument and would like to contribute to the music ministry,  please let us know – you will be most welcome.

30th Oct         Holy Communion 10:30am St Mary’s Church

                          Monkstown Home Group 8pm Fleury’s home

1st Nov            Service of Reflection 7:30pm St Mary’s Church

4th Nov           Littlies + One 10-12 Parish Hall

13th Nov Faith in Action  Information Evening 7:30pm Parish Hall

24th Nov Gift Day  9:30 and 11am Services

24th Nov Installation of Canon Elaine 3:30pm in  St Fin Barre’s Cathedral

22nd-24th Nov   Mother’s Union Weekend Away Garryvoe Hotel.

28th-30th Nov    Theatre Supper Nights in Canon Packham Hall ,

Random Notes CCCXX

The car, the goat and the game-show host: The Monty Hall problem

In preparing a talk I am giving in November, I came across this little maths problem and thought it was worth sharing. Don’t worry, the maths is very simple, but the problem is controversial and absolutely infuriating. Here goes!

You are on a quiz show. You have reached the final round and the grand prize of a shiny new car awaits. There are three doors in front of you: A, B and C. Behind one door is the car.

Behind each of the other two cars is a goat. Famous game show host, Monty Hall, asks you to pick a door. You pick door B. Monty Hall, who knows which door the car is behind, opens door A to reveal a goat.

Monty Hall asks you, Do you want to change your choice from door B to door C?

What should you do?

This is where the controversy starts. The puzzle was originally published in Parade magazine in 1990 and the solution was provided by Marilyn vos Savant in her column in the same magazine. Her answer? You should always switch to the other door.

Vos Savant’s argument went roughly as follows: When you picked door B you had 1/3 chance of winning the car. There is 2/3 chance that the car is behind door A and C. Monty has opened door A and clearly the car is not there. There is still 2/3 chance the car is behind door C.

The chance of the car being behind the door you picked, door B, is still only 1/3. Therefore, you double your chances of winning if you switch.

This explanation caused a huge furore with many eminent mathematicians disagreeing with vos Savant. They and a lot of other people felt that the odds of the car being behind door B or C is 50/50 so there was no advantage in switching. In fact, vos Savant is correct, as the table below shows.

If you stick, you win 1/3 of the time but if you switch, you win 2/3 of the time. This is not an intuitive result and there is a detailed explanation at https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/. The website also includes a little online game where you can demonstrate for yourself that, on average, switching is always better.

SJFW

Categories Parish Notices | Tags: | Posted on October 30, 2019

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